Don’t Be A Greedy ****

The great thing about having your own blog is you can do what you want on it and say what you want. As long as you do not slander anyone – that serves no purpose 🙂 You don’t have to worry about etiquette and decorum and you can be as course as you like.

I usually am pretty restrained in my videos and on my blog. I am a working class guy. I worked in factories, on the shop floor as a production operator, and then as a Production Supervisor/Line Manager. I have factory roots and I talk factory language. Usually I can keep this in check. But occasionally I “let go”. This video is the best of both worlds. By the end of it i was pretty annoyed with myself. So i gave myself a good going over. I am pretty sure you have all done similar.

The video i reckon was pretty good, until i ruined it by showing my “factory roots”. If any of you have watched the legendary Adam Todd videos, you will see I can give him a run for his money!

if you are offend by bad language please don’t view this video. If you have young Children in the room I suggest you don’t have the sound on. It’s ok until near the end. Then it goes to pieces.

As always, watch the video and ten read the breakdown of the trade.

This is a 3m Hcap Chase at Kempton Park. There are 9 runners and it’s very competitive. The shortest priced runner is 5.7, and 6 of the 8 are under 10. There are 3 minutes until the start.

00:00 My initial assessment  lets me see that really not a lot is happening. many of the runners are trading in tight ranges. I attempt to Lay Doctor Foxtrot at 5.9. It looks uneasy and I am hoping to get the enhanced tick size by laying at 5.9. I identify Brass Tax as being strong, having just broken through the cross over at 6.

0:27 I decide as as nothing else is happening apart from the move on Brass Tax, I “have a poke at it”. The book is quite slack as you would expect from this type od race with no short prices. So you will get some ebb & flow.

01:28 – I cancel the trade on Dr Foxtrot and decide to concentrate on Brass Tax. It’s becoming more serious than a “poke’ and I can see there might be a few quid to be made.

01:50 Check out the money moving on Brass Tax, there is a little bit of momentum as people add to and move the money down to get matched.

I foolishly start to “drip out” of my trade by getting match on some £50 trades.

2:40 As we start to enter the final phase of the race, the line up is established I see Brass Tax is near the front. This means that It is unlikely to drift as the back2lay boys step in. I have a respectable total so do not want to blow that – hence the dripping out. Even with half of my £400 stake out, it is still making £7 a tick.

3:30 By now it is sitting at the crossover at 4. There is a lesser tick size profit below this so the merits of staying in and risking my green book is questionable. I bounce is very possible here. I make a reference that I am keen to take a £100 green book (this is a psychological  thing – Like I say I am greedy).

4:30 So I close the trade with a green book of £108…………. A very simple trade all in all – I backed it – it came in with on opposition. Not sure what you will learn from this other than how common I am 🙂

Meltdown

I try a cheeky scalp with £200 to nick an extra £3. It’s important to note here that once this goes in play. I have ALL the profit on this horse, there is only about £8 red on the others. I eventually walk away with a green book of £92. I got annoyed at the stupid of throwing away a great total for the risk of £3. I still cannot believe I did it. I watched this back this morning and had a chuckle. As you can tell by my reaction, I wasn’t too impressed with myself at the time!

As always I welcome you comments and questions – MG

 

13 thoughts on “Don’t Be A Greedy ****

  1. Hi Steve,

    first of all, nice how you spot it and how easy it can be. Next, i often see myself doing such stuff at the end of a race near to the start, to get a tick more and then i lost my profit which i made…, my reaction is nearly the same as yours, sometimes i try to swallo it and sometimes i shout it out, like you. Think thats the normal world if you done something really stupid, which doesn´t make much sense, because we thinking nearly 5-10 minutes what could/should/do happen now and then and in the last minutes do something without the brain really working in our favor only thinking $$$ – more please. At the end of the day, we are all human and make such little mistakes till we set up automatic traderbots with a 100% strike rate :-P.

    Have a good week

    Cheers
    T

  2. I tell you what Steve, I was laughing here, not cos you lost money but cos all the searing and how that swearing all seems familiar as I have been in similar situations but obviously I only had a green of £10 or £20 but still kick myself and trying to work out why I did such a thing. In fact i did it yesterday.

    Grrrrrr. Lol.

    Its good to see that even pros make mistakes, (Dont take that the wrong way) But that video has given me more hope, as its a great thing that you dont just show green trades to make others think its a simple task.
    Keep them coming.

    Cheers

  3. Firstly, you worked that race out well and traded it perfectly up to the meltdown. To be honest and please take this the right way, it was good to see someone of your skill and experience make a greedy cock up. Shows you are human and gains you more respect in my eyes.

    Ive done this on many occasions and busted several banks doing so. I have mainly learned to take a red before I implode these days but I dare say there is potential for future sessions. The worse occasion was when I punched the laptop and smashed the bugger. Worse still, it was my girl friend lappy. So not only did I spunk a bank I had to splash out £100 to get the screen repaired.

    Ps your expletives were justified!!

    Pps, thanks for the email re training schedule. Just trying to sort my life out before I can confirm the date.

    Daz

  4. thats the first one ive showed my wife, im a working class northern lad so she is used to that language when im trading lol. its always getting me into trouble. the only problem with where i live is all the factories have closed down and now the public sector jobs are going as well. if i can just cut out the stupid mistakes, i really think i can make this work, thanks for all your advice so far, onwards and upwards

    • I have first target like Peter:

      ” if i can just cut out the stupid mistakes, i really think i can make this work ”

      And also:

      ” thanks for all your advice so far, onwards and upwards ”

      Cheers

  5. HI MG
    Just to say how impressive all theses videos are, I am a big follower, I think I have watched them all (took me a month lol)
    I’ve paper traded some races and I’ve seen the results for myself, The only problem I come across was more often then not when a horse broke through its trading range it went back twice as fast 🙁
    I think in a day out of 20 races only about 5 carried on straight through the traded range and didn’t bounce, im sure there is something I am missing, im watching all the other horses and book percentage but it can change very fast and if the favourite is pushing the price the other way, the other wont move until it is too late (when the book gets tight) and what you thought was the ebb and flow would of gone against you.
    I don’t know if its just me or does anyone know what im on about?
    How many races do you trade in a day? and do you have any profits or losses to show us?
    That’s if you don’t mind me asking lol

    Ps don’t worry about the swearing, Its better then holes in the walls or even worse screen lol

    All the best with your trading
    Vince

    • Hi Vince – Thanks for your comment. You are quiet correct about the trading ranges. There is more to it that waiting for breakouts.Although these are often the big swings. There are often races where you have to grind out a few ticks here and there, of wait for it to bounce of the bottom or top of a trading range. I think the most important thing is not to get too hung up on what a horse is going to do and try and work out the whole race. If you can find a place you can take a position with a good chance of other horses either opposing yours if you are laying or not opposing it if your backing. Then hide behind some part of the trading range where there has been high volume or a crossover point – often the same thing. You have a chance. Paper trading or trading in practice mode takes away the emotional side of trading. If you’re sitting there with £2k + in the market it alters your decision making for sure.:)
      I try to trade most races, but to either a greater or lesser degree. You can’t force a trade. I trade according to the race shape.
      I never post up my PL’s – It serves no purpose whatsoever other to intimidate. I might as well post a picture of my cock.
      Are the PL’s to prove my credibility? If so I don’t think I have to, do I? You tell me 🙂
      Cheers MG

  6. I enjoyed that Steve, just goes to prove that you are only human. The best bit is that you came away with 85% of your original green still intact….I get excited when I manage a green at all lol I often walk away with a nice crimson coloured loss and when I have managed that 3 times on the trot as I did yesterday THEN I get peeved and walk away. Went and had a beer and came back to a few profitable trades (although I know that is not the advisable thing to do after a beer) to improve my temperament.

    Cheers,
    Nick

    • Hi Nick,

      I am not MG but if you manage to take a loss 3-4 times in a row it usually just means you have to change your strategy for that day, usually by doing the opposite.

      This happened to me on monday. Huge reds 5 times in a row, I smashed a glass (cheaper than monitor), took 20 minute break and rewatched my trades of that day and I noticed that when favourite looked coming in or drifting out that no other runners seemed to be doing anything. It was just large “ebb and flow.” So I switched strategy from looking for swing to scalping few ticks at safe points and it mostly worked. My first 7 trades were 6L-1W, remaining 11 were 3L-11W. I got caught up only once where I did not notice actual opposition and lost 6 ticks but over the day I managed to reduce my losses heavily.

      Thing is, that usually you can spot pattern in first few races and then apply appropriate strategy. Looking for large swings (which most of us probably do here) is just not going to work when first 4 races that day were flat or ranging. It doesnt mean it cant happen but I would beware jumping on trades too quickly base only on immediate move. Whole market has to tell you if the trend is happening or not. Of course it can get very frustrating if favourite is flying in 20 tick ranges but you can always choose not to trade (which I struggle with).

      • Hi Yirkaa,
        Thanks for the reply. I believe that you are right in as much as you should let the markets decide your approach and I have to admit that I spend too much time looking for swings, it doesn’t help that I can only trade on alternate weeks (due to my work pattern) and then I only have a small window of opportunity of around an hour and a half and maybe a few early evening races. I am slowly learning to be more selective of the races that I trade by evaluating the markets first (again looking for swing possibilities) and not just jumping on every race that I see.

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