The great thing about having your own blog is you can do what you want on it and say what you want. As long as you do not slander anyone – that serves no purpose 🙂 You don’t have to worry about etiquette and decorum and you can be as course as you like.
I usually am pretty restrained in my videos and on my blog. I am a working class guy. I worked in factories, on the shop floor as a production operator, and then as a Production Supervisor/Line Manager. I have factory roots and I talk factory language. Usually I can keep this in check. But occasionally I “let go”. This video is the best of both worlds. By the end of it i was pretty annoyed with myself. So i gave myself a good going over. I am pretty sure you have all done similar.
The video i reckon was pretty good, until i ruined it by showing my “factory roots”. If any of you have watched the legendary Adam Todd videos, you will see I can give him a run for his money!
if you are offend by bad language please don’t view this video. If you have young Children in the room I suggest you don’t have the sound on. It’s ok until near the end. Then it goes to pieces.
As always, watch the video and ten read the breakdown of the trade.
This is a 3m Hcap Chase at Kempton Park. There are 9 runners and it’s very competitive. The shortest priced runner is 5.7, and 6 of the 8 are under 10. There are 3 minutes until the start.
00:00 My initial assessment lets me see that really not a lot is happening. many of the runners are trading in tight ranges. I attempt to Lay Doctor Foxtrot at 5.9. It looks uneasy and I am hoping to get the enhanced tick size by laying at 5.9. I identify Brass Tax as being strong, having just broken through the cross over at 6.
0:27 I decide as as nothing else is happening apart from the move on Brass Tax, I “have a poke at it”. The book is quite slack as you would expect from this type od race with no short prices. So you will get some ebb & flow.
01:28 – I cancel the trade on Dr Foxtrot and decide to concentrate on Brass Tax. It’s becoming more serious than a “poke’ and I can see there might be a few quid to be made.
01:50 Check out the money moving on Brass Tax, there is a little bit of momentum as people add to and move the money down to get matched.
I foolishly start to “drip out” of my trade by getting match on some £50 trades.
2:40 As we start to enter the final phase of the race, the line up is established I see Brass Tax is near the front. This means that It is unlikely to drift as the back2lay boys step in. I have a respectable total so do not want to blow that – hence the dripping out. Even with half of my £400 stake out, it is still making £7 a tick.
3:30 By now it is sitting at the crossover at 4. There is a lesser tick size profit below this so the merits of staying in and risking my green book is questionable. I bounce is very possible here. I make a reference that I am keen to take a £100 green book (this is a psychological thing – Like I say I am greedy).
4:30 So I close the trade with a green book of £108…………. A very simple trade all in all – I backed it – it came in with on opposition. Not sure what you will learn from this other than how common I am 🙂
I try a cheeky scalp with £200 to nick an extra £3. It’s important to note here that once this goes in play. I have ALL the profit on this horse, there is only about £8 red on the others. I eventually walk away with a green book of £92. I got annoyed at the stupid of throwing away a great total for the risk of £3. I still cannot believe I did it. I watched this back this morning and had a chuckle. As you can tell by my reaction, I wasn’t too impressed with myself at the time!
As always I welcome you comments and questions – MG