Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth? What the f*** does that even mean? I take it to mean – If someone is giving you a gift – accept it gratefully. I actually googled this to see where it came from. Apparently as horses get older their teeth grow and protrude from their month, Experienced folk can tell a horses age by it’s teeth, So the saying relates to if someone is giving you a horse don’t complain if it’s very old. 🙂 What’s that got to do with this trade? It was a gift!
Got some good comments and critique from my last video where I broke down the trade, so thought I’d do that again. It’s really important not to get too hung up on this explaination. It is dissecting it into minute detail – after the event. That’s always very easy to pick apart. It’s always easy in hindsight, but not so easy when your money is sitting there!
Have a look at the video and then read the comments
00:00 The initial trade was placed as a LAY on the fav at 2.20. The 2nd fav had just broken though it’s resistance point and cross over at 4. A cross over is where the odds change in tick size. In this case below 4 is 0.05 increments and above 4 is 0.1. This is a natural barrier, so breaking though is significant. The fav had a drifting trend and had been trading in the range between 2.06 and 2.2 in had also broken through it’s upper resistance point. An outsider Shamick Boy had moved from 40 into 20. Although I don’t give as much credence to bigger prices this adds to the pressure on the fav to drift, as would any downward pressure from Kuda Huraa.
1:50 It’s ticking along nicely. I’m happy with the staking. In hindsight I could have been more aggresive. But all the time in the back of my mind was that the horse was trained by Nicky Henderson. He’s the top trainer and I didn’t have a reason to understand why the horse may be drifting. Punters are fickle, and it could soon turn.
2:!2 The back book is tight here (100.7%) – it means that something is unlike to drift without something moving in to counteract it. What I am saying is there is little room for ebb & flow – the runners are directly influencing each other. There is still downward pressure from 3 of the runners against the fav. This is why I added to the trade. I could not see it going zooming off into the distance, so attempted to take a modest 5 ticks from that £200.
2:24 I talk about the amounts of money appearing and disappearing. maybe spoof money? If it stands out and it doesn’t move up or down it probably isn’t real, If someone wants to back or lay something the money moves.
4:40 The live pictures say it all to me. At Newbury the horses are corralled in a holding area with a narrow exit. It is absolutely clear that the fav wants to leave there first . None of the other runners are putting him under any pressure for the position. A common strategy nowadays is for people to back the horse pre race and trade out once the odds have dropped as the y take a prominent position in play. A favourite with an uncontested lead (as long as he settles well in the race) is likely to have a healthy reduction in odds. As it becomes clear to all this is happening the odds tumble. irrespective of what happens in the market prior to this. This last few moments wipes all that out.
I have received a comment from Daz: he makes a good point about using the “Back2lay” strategy and warns of it’s danger. If you read my reply to Daz you will see that in this case I was using the fact that he was obviously lining up in front and taking advantage of the reversal in the drift as a consequence. This was a high confidence trade – because I could see what was happening.
As you guys know. I have a straightforward approach to my trading. I say it how it is. If I don’t do well i say so. I don’t pretend to be the best, because I am not. I am like most of you guys. I make bad calls, use bad judgement and have bad moods. I want to share with you something that happened EXACTLY along the lines of what Daz is warning about.
I wish I had recorded this live, it was 19th December at Exeter (1:50) I have found the video of the start of the race to show exactly what happened. The fav in the 4 runner race was Bury Parade. A smart horse trading at around 1.5. I was watching the preliminaries and at Exeter the horse (depending on the distance) have to walk down a narrow walkway. There is only room for 2 horses across max. In this case Bury Parade was a couple of lengths ahead. When the horse get to the bottom, the usual chain of events is they walk straight onto the course and off they go. I saw this as an opportunity to make some very easy money. When a favourite, especially this short leads. As long as it jumps ok and doesn’t pull. The odds will tumble very quickly. I expected to get 5-7 ticks before they saw a fence. I was very aggressive with this trade and staked a Substantial amount. Watch the video (Click the link below) and see what happened next. Lesson learned. btw. My wife got very little for Christmas this year 🙂