Hide & Seek

With my new Skype trading room up and running as a huge part of my Mentorship program. I made this video specifically for the guys in the room to show a certain point I was attempting to make during a discussion we were having. I opened up the room a couple of days ago – even before the first course has run. I wanted to test the tech, and get to know the guys a little before we get stuck in on Monday. For every new group of guys coming along, they will have access to the Sykpe room a week before they are due to take part in the course.

After I recorded this, I loaded it straight up to my Dropbox account and popped up the link in the room. The guys were able to download it and watch it straight after the race. I am very excited about this. I reckon it could be a great teaching aid.

Watch the video and then read my breakdown.

If you want to get involved in the Mentorship program. I only have 3 places left for June, but July has a few more. You can see the details HERE

 

This race was from Warwick and had 11 runners. I quickly set up to record this. So didn’t have my usual set up. But the main info is viewable. My focus is on the favourite April Sky. The point I was making was regarding the definition of the range. As you can see there is 2 high amounts (in comparison) of 32.7k at 4.1 and 17.6k at 3.95. This amount is sitting at the crossover point where the tick size changes. Not at all uncommon. Usually this a great place to LAY. But only if the odds may drift 🙂 A quick scan of the market shows nothing putting too much pressure on April Sky. Having already broken through the crossover. It’s at a critical stage.

I dither about (as usual) and eventually take a position by backing April Sky at 3.7. I keep saying “7/2” for some reason. I do of course mean 5/2. When I open a position, one of my priorities is “where is my exit should this go tits up?”. Well in this case I have a very safe position behind that 42k at 4.1. Ideally i would have got into this trade a lot sooner, so my loss would have been nowhere near as sever should it reverse. But these videos are not about how much I win or lose. that is pretty much superfluous. It’s about the method.

1:25 – There is over 3% gap in the book here, so this slight reversal is well with the ebb & flow of the book. If you let the video run on a few seconds you will se that money is stating to arrive and get matched on the Lay side (pink) forcing the price lower as backers move their money in order to get matched. Another look at the other runners shows that not too much is happening to oppose April Sky. A slo talk about the matched volumes at3.7 & 3.75. There is another “step” in matched volume here, this is a new range forming within the range. As a consequence of this it is a natural safety point. My new exit is now at 3.8 – behind this money.

2:00 At last i wake up and put some more money in. I have a new “safe” exit point. My comment about the WOM on the back side is worth taking note of. If you look at the WOM indicators at the bottom of the ladders you will see that there is 68% on the back side and 32% on the Lay side. I think many traders would interpret this as the price drifting. I ignore this, WOM is irrelevant unless it is actually moving and has momentum. This will disappear as soon as it gets close to being matched. Don’t assume that every single £ or € on these ladder are matched. Most is cancelled or let unmatched.

I close eventually for a £35 green book. This was unspectacular trade all in all. But like I said it was about a specific signal that I wanted to explain to the guys on my program.

I hope they don’t mind me sharing this with you all. It gives an insight into what it’s all about.

 

2 thoughts on “Hide & Seek

  1. Hi Mag, I want to say that your awesome blog have readers in Russia too)
    Thanks for a very informative videos. It is unfortunate that Coventry is very far from my hometown, so Mentorship program are not available to me.
    I have a question about the first point of exit in this video, you say that due to the fact that there high amounts matched it makes the position safer, as it is more difficult to pass. With my not experienced knowledge I can not understand how matched money can prevent movement. I would be very grateful if you explain it.
    Thank you. (Sorry for my english)

    • Hi Roninov – hey your English is great! In answer to your question. Imagine matched volume is like water and you are swimming in it. The less matched money the thinner the water, So it’s easier to make progress. As the matched volume increases the water gets thicker, so it’s harder to pass though. When you get to amounts that are much bigger than the amounts around them this becomes every harder.So matched money adds to resistance of the price passing through it. Hope this makes sense – Thanks for your comment – Appreciate it – MG

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