How Did That Happen?

This is a collectors item. As you know I don’t shy away from showing you that I am not some sort of amazing super trader that never gets it wrong. I do. Just as i suspect you all do from time to time. I like to post up videos that mean something. That way you get to learn and I can show you things that are relevant.

Now although this isn’t my finest hour, there are a couple of good parts to the trade that show up well market behaviour. When I watched it back it became apparent where I made my mistakes. I am having a decent run of things at the minute and my confidence is higher than usual. This affects how I view my trades. When confidence is high you can feel invinvable. But that’s alway short lived and life has a habit of clipping your wings. Although this trade isn’t a complete disaster, it shows you that taking a loss is ok. It’s about being in control.

Watch the video and then read my breakdown.

00:00 This is a 5 runner race, 2 shorter priced runners and 3 in double figures. My initial assessment is that I think that Auden may not break through the cross over point at 2.0. I was struggling to find it’s definable trading range.

01:37 I make a comment that when there are 2 runners both with a positive trend I find this a good signal. One will usually steam, and it’s often the favourite.

02:15 I make reference to my stop loss or exit position. It begins to look likely that it will be reached.

02:30 I like this bit ๐Ÿ™‚ I wanted to be in this trade, and was willing to take the risk of a small loss, as if the steam did happen it could be a big one and a good profit. I am balancing out the risk v reward, so this is stacked in my favour. This is essential to making long term profits.

02:38 As if by magic, exactly that happens. It bounces slightly but in general the trend has strengthened. What actually happened was the slack in the book had been taken up. The back side percentage went from 101.5% to 100.1% So 1.4% of the book. The price on the 2nd fav didn’t budge initially.

03:24 At this point I thought I was home and dry. I was thinking this is going to go 1.8 or lower/

03:47 Every runner has a positive trend, except for the favourite. The book was pretty slack and much ebb & flow

04:22 I do the right thing and exit, It was becoming a mess.

05:30 At this point there is some momentum and WOM building on the Lay side of the fav, ย it’s obviously going to stream. The same thing is happening on the back side of the 2nd fav – that is about to drift.ย I am on the wrong side and oblivious.

06:52 It’s only 32 seconds from the race going In Play and I could have closed the trade for a ยฃ5 loss. I outstayed my welcome.

All the way through this trade, the 2nd fav didn’t go above 3.5 or below 3.25. In that 5 tick range over 100k was matched in those 5 ticks. Anyone with a brain cell could have filled their boots. Unfortunately I left my brain cell somewhere else today. Even after watching it back a couple of times. I don’t think i did too much wrong. Another time would would be watching this with a ยฃ100 green book. Trading in the style I do, sometimes you have to take a loss. But it has to be controlled.

Like I said “How did that happen?

 

17 thoughts on “How Did That Happen?

  1. Recently decided to try my hand at trading and your videos have been really helpful and informative mate. Its a bit of a jungle out there but your helping to create a path which is much appreciated. Keep up the good work!

      • I’ve been waiting for that..!! you are human after all. Was a tough call that one I lost as well(well I lose on most) however with your help its getting less and less as each week passes by, can’t wait for your event in May..!!
        I just wanted to say how displeased I was to read on the Bet Angel forum about the guy who tried to take advantage of your help, to another level, perhaps he should be reminded that we all appreciate how far you do go, and if he does want to move up, then he can do the same as the rest of us and attend one of your events. Don’t let it get to you mate, as I’ve told you before, we are all indebted to you for
        what you do sincerely.

  2. Hi MG,

    watched this one a few times and just to conjecture on the question, from my limited knowledge, that you didnt do much wrong. I would have read the market in a similar way. If I had to highlight something from the video it would be possibly your lack of decisiveness as to when to enter and exit and whether to add or cut. As you previously stated, you were on a high with plenty of confidence but was umming and rrring with this one. Maybe its because, somewhere in the back of your mind, you saw something that rang alarm bells, as you took some money out around 2min 40 sec? A latent niggle? Maybe it was your experience from past trades? Maybe the cross over point caused a delayed decision which led to an entry or exit point delay? Or as you said, maybe you chose the wrong horse to trade and should have got stuck into the 2nd fav.
    BUT, the main thing for me is that you decided that you couldnt make your mind up so settled for a small red. Some (myself included) may have taken this in play as it was a two horse race effectively and the fav would possibly trade back in, in-play. Did the fav line up in front near the off?

    None of this was meant as criticism but as conjecture to what processes were going through your mind at the time and food for further debate and instruction.

    Great vid and explanation and look forward to more.

    Daz

    • It was a flat race and the fav traded at a low of 1.96. But isn’t the point. I am happy to go in play if I see a realistic exit. The NH horse 3 lengths ahead are a different league to flat races. Unless you have profiles the race and are standing on 10 feet of concrete it’s a massive nono taking them in play. Your right about the alarm bells and reducing my stake. In fact there are several occasions when I should have cut and run.
      As always breaking down the race after is always much easier than in the heat of battle, it’s a great exercise to do, as it lays you bare. The indecision isn’t as bad as it seemed. If I make my mind up it’s made up. I do things very swiftly. In this case it could have gone either way. If your not in it you can’t win it ๐Ÿ™‚ Good comments Daz. This is what I am after. I feel you will learn just as much, if not more from the mistakes as you will the bigger wins. Cheers MG

      • Cheers Bernie – The BA forum is a different animal to my own patch ๐Ÿ™‚ – My concern for anyone is that if they think that betting is a easy way to financial security they are in it for the wrong reason. Don’t get me wrong. I am convinced I can help most people to increase their success. But this isn’t a get rich quick scheme. It’s a lot of hard work, and a ling hard road. Cheers MG

        • thanks for another great video had my best trading day yesterday thanks to you cheers mg getting out of bad trades quicker has brought me in small profit. i am a computer idiot could you tell me how to record my trades so i can look back at them after the heat of the battle .i really enjoy trading want to get better its only a hobby for me i would be happy just to cover my betangel costs lol. but i still want to be the best i can be.p.s betangel should have another figure showing the difference in the book% my maths is poor by the time i figure it out its changed lol. one more question mg sry for rambling when you are trading when you see the book getting tight is that enough to make a decision on your next step ie get out of a trade be for it turns. when i see this i always look to see what horse is moving against the fav do i need to do this as it costs me seconds b4 i act cheers pokerhead

          • If you want to record your trades you need some software. I use a imac, so it has built in recording features. On my PC I used Camtasia. If you google “screen recoding software” there are a few free ones.
            The slack in the book – basically points in the direction of ebb and flow. If the gap between the 2 sides of the book is bigger than 2% it’s got capacity to ebb & flow a little. All you need to do is keep an eye on the back side, if that’s over 101.5% then it’s likely to be slack. Don’t get too hung up on this. It’s a small piece of a big jigsaw. You can’t trade just on this. Other things need to be right too. Chuffed your making good progress.Appreciate your kind comment. Cheers MG

  3. Hi Mg,
    Just a quick question, You are trading betfair yet you seem to have free access to Betdaq Video on every race. How do you manage that?
    Thanks mate
    Al

  4. Hi Mg

    Just wanted to say reading your explanation and replies you receive are really good. I am a useless trader, my main problem is letting things go into play. Great when it comes off, but not so good when it goes tits up. Watching your video’s and reading all the replies shows where I am going wrong. I am now trying to be more disciplined, hope it can carry on. One thing I have learn’t is not to be greedy, take the 3-5 pounds wins whilst still in the process of learning.

    Thanks for the great vid’s, keep them coming.

    Felix

    • Thanks Felix – Like I often say, the aim of the videos I record is to try to pass some of what I have learnt on. Every video I post has to actually mean something. Good or bad. I don’t win in every single race I trade. It’s about the balance at the end of the month. My style is based on Risk v reward. I have to see a way to make more than I lose in everything I do. Even in this trade, there was always a prospect of making much more than I lost.
      I’ll be doing this as long as people think it’s of use I guess ๐Ÿ™‚ Cheers MG

  5. Hi Mg

    I am sure there are a lot of newbie traders like me who appreciate and take all your valuable advice on board.

    Cheers

  6. Hi Mugs,

    Interesting trade, I think its a great example for newbies to see because your style of trading will give results like this trade(small loss) but you were in a great position to make a big profit if the Fav crashed in. We would all be millionaires if we knew when and what horses were gonna move. To be honest i think it was a well executed trade (not saying that to blow smoke up you h**e) haha. Yes you could of scalped the 2nd Fav and made 20-30quid but you would of been in a world of hurt if the Fav did crash and your then trying to close out you scalp breaking even. What im trying to say is i suppose you gotta be in to win,put yourself in those positions and even if you get 50% of them right your profit should be greater than your small loss over time.. very important for new traders to see the red and see its ok to have SMALL controlled reds.

    As always great vid and great info mugs,

    Cheers Mark

  7. Hi MG
    Initially I was studying form to try and figure out a market movement, and it worked sometimes, other times it was a disaster. Market movement is obviously the thing to watch for trading, forget the form book.

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