I Don’t Like Monday’s

I like to come up with a catchy title for my videos, and earlier on I was thinking about poor Peaches Geldolf and her Dad – Sir Bob. Unless you have lived on another planet (and I know some of you lot do….. 🙂 ) You will know that Bob Geldolf’s band The Boomtown Rats had a big hit with I Don’t Like Monday’s back in  1979. In general I don’t like trading on Monday, and I usually try to influence my mates to have a day out on the bikes on Mondays as it costs me less. However, this week they wanted to go out yesterday (Sunday) – we had a great day and went up to Willingham Woods near Market Rasen. Some great roads and a top day. Best of all we all came home safe.  I sat in my chair just before I started trading and started singing ‘I Don’t like Monday’s”  – I had a negative head on right from the start. However, that soon changed.

As always, watch the video and read my detailed breakdown of the trade – blow by blow.

It’s the 2:30 at Hexham. A 6 runner handicap hurdle over 2m4f. The favourite is a Donald Mccain horse ridden by AP McCoy. A potent combination and one that commands respect. I usually always check out who is training and riding the horse I am trading. This sometimes has a bearing on what happens. Short Takes is a short price at 2,32. My initial assessment of the market notes that there is a jump in the matched amount, with nothing between 2.48 and 2.58. This usually denotes a non runner and the reduction factor kicking in. There is a narrow defended range between 2.28 and 2.36. I note that 4 other runners are at crossovers. In fact all 5 of the other runners are at crossovers. Bop Along and Forty Crown at 6. Vuvuzela and kent Street at 10 and Sam Lord at 20. Breaking through a crossover is a powerful signal.

Initially I am not sure what to do. I comment that there is “not a lot above” By this I mean that the WOM is light. There is not a lot of people queuing to back the horse. This may or may not be relevant. You can see with the exception of Short takes and Sam Lord, the other runners t have green bands towards the bottom of their ranges, indicating some support. I identify that Bop Along and Kent Street have intact broken through their crossovers and the fav is “weak” I take my initial position of a £200 lay at 2.34. I say that I am taking a little bit of a chance. This “chance” is actually my gut feeling based on my experience. I have strong pattern recognition based on my experience. Sometimes you mistake “gut feelings” for actual experience. You can of course get a fast track on experience. By learning from others experience rather than having to have that experience yourself. I go in with another £200 lay at 2.34.

By 1:00 into the video, 3 have broken through the crossover and Short Takes has drifted to 2.46. I have added another £140 at 2.38 and another £200 at 2.46. It has broken through the top of it’s range just as the other 3 have broken through the bottom of theirs. All plain sailing so far. I have £20 green and a 5 tick buffer to scratch.

2:10 The 2nd and 3rd favs have both reversed slightly and so has Short Takes. There is nearly £6k popped up on the lay side wanting to back this. I know this is fake, but I reduce my liability be backing £200 at 2.4.

2:19 – This is an important part. The £6k that I thought was fake moves down 2 ticks to 2.38. This changes my mind about it being fake. Someone wants to back this horses and is moving their money to get matched. In a weak market like this. this amount is enough to bully the market and I don’t want to take a risk. I close my position at 2.34 and have a red book of £7.53

3:06 I reassess the market. Forty Crown is stable at the crossover at 6. Sam Lord is not doing a lot. But the other 2 are both coming in and breaking new ground. Kent Street is now 7.6 from 10. This now needs to be taken more seriously. I go back in at 2.42 and another £200 at 2.46

3:40. By this stage the drift is gathering some momentum on the back of the gathering steams on Bop Along and Kent Street. When the good guys outnumber the bad guys it isn’t a fair fight. I alway like to look for unfair fights. They pay my bills and keep my wife in shoes and handbags.

4:40. The runners are start to organise themselves at the start. I want to make sure this isn’t going to have a negative influence on my positon.

5:00There is massive momentum and WOM is forcing the price out. There is not much money waiting to back the horse (pink side). In fact at 5:02 there sonly £111 between 2.94 and 3 and £142 between 3.1 and 3.7.

6:00. I go for an ambitious exit at £200 at 3.4. But things have slowed down now prior to the start as the back2 lay boys are shaping the market. I manage a respectable £174.62 green book.

I welcome you comments and questions. If you are interested in learning more of the methods and tare interested in joining my mentorship program. Please look HERE

 

 

24 thoughts on “I Don’t Like Monday’s

  1. Hey Steve

    Another fantastic video. You keep pulling up these gems. Well worth watching, seeing a positive, then a negative then on to another planet. Noticed the 3.40 at Pont and 4.50 at Windsor just go from one county to another. Did you get involved in these two ? Going through your video’s over and over again is starting to pay dividend as I somehow managed to get on to the right side. Downside was I came out early on both trades.

    Any updates on the new dates ?

    Keep the video’s coming mate, you are a “bloody shining STAR”

    Felix

    • Many thanks for your kind words Felix. The 3:40 is going to be part of the DVD for the mentorship program. It was a decent three figures but I f***** it up. I didn’t have enough money in. I was going to post it on YT, but I didn’t want to embarrass myself.It went from 3 to 2.I did nothing great with the Windsor race.I have requested 2 new dates, I am waiting for the contracts. I don’t want to announce them until i have signed, because if it goes wrong I will be in a real mess 🙂 Theres on end of June and one end of July – exact dates tbc. All on my “I’m interested list” will get an invite as soon as I have the contacts. Nice work if your making a profit Cheers
      MG

  2. Hi MUGS
    Thanks for another great video ,
    I was in the same market and took 28.35 green from it ,i was delighted,
    Good to see the king got the guts of 200.
    keep em coming,
    Thanks again
    Marc

    • Marc – It make no odds wether it’s £200 or £20. It’s about trading to your comfort zone. I think the biggest mistake traders make is trying to get the big totals before they are ready. When will they be ready? Trust me they will know when it’s time to ramp up. remember it’s easier to lose big totals as it is to make them. If you said to me pre racing – Would you take £25 a race today. I’d snap your hand off.
      £25 x 25 races =£625 – £625 x 6 days = £3750 (you have to have a day off sometimes 🙂 ) £3750 x 49 weeks = £183,750. That’s a wage. It’s all about consistency. Thanks for your comment and support Marc. I am as chuffed about your win as I am my own. Cheers MG

      • Thanks Mugs.
        Tell me please what size and spec is your monitor ?
        im using a 2 monitor set up at the moment .its a massive difference from my old crappy one monitor set up ,but i feel i need to fit more in on one screen when i attempt to profile a race i have the lay or back bet in running kept ,but as you know some tines one needs to get the hell out in a hurry ,
        any way ,,long story short i need a bigger monitor ,what size is yours big boy ???
        Marc

        • Hey Marc. I trade from a 27″ iMac. But you can squeeze in the ladders in all sorts of ways. If you can’t get the ladders in, just bring up the “players” and watch the rest in the “info” pane. It’s harder, but possible. Cheers MG

      • Hi mugs another master class .when you post a video I pause it and see if I make the same initial assessment as you do, on this one I would struggle the first three horses for me solely by their graphs where steady the other two kind of canceling each other out when two horses dipped below their crossover point by only one or two ticks u lay the fav I can’t see book % (watching video on phone) was book thigh at this time ? If not would not need to wait little longer to see if this move below their crossover point was not just slack in book.I probably would have got one the right side of this trade eventually but half my profit would be gone.any thoughts appreciated thanks mugs cheers ph

        • Hey PH, The way I looked at it is like this. If 1 drops below a XO, yes, I’d want to see a couple of ticks past and look out for a bounce back. But when multiple runners break through it’s telling you something. As you know it’s hard for a runner to break through. So when you get 2 or 3 breaking though the fav must be weak. The book percentage didn’t really come into it at that time. It was all action lol. This trade had plenty of chances to get on. My biggest mistake was I didn’t have enough on. It was a real stand out. Don’t pay too much attention to the graphs. The real info is on the ladders. It’s the same stuff but in a more accurate way. I could trade without a graph very happily I fucking hate them lol Cheers MG

  3. Nice video MG,
    I had a terrible weekend, partly because I don’t really know what I am doing and even more so because I was failing to ‘profile’ the markets properly. I noticed that you are aware of exactly where each horse is at any time in relation to where they were when you first looked at the race….that is difficult to remember I find. Anyway, nice to see it done properly.

    Nick

    • It is difficult Nick, it’s habit and repetition. I guess I can trace it back to my time on a production line in a Car factory. When you do exactly the same thing 300 odd times a day you get good at it and find subtle ways of saying yourself time and effort. Once you have made the initial assessment and opened your position, the phase changes into “managing the trade”. If your horse is going where you want it to you’re looking for danger signs of a reversal. If it’s doing nothing or even reversing find out why. There has to be a reason. Is something moving against you? Is there several runners moving a tick? Is there lots of slack? It’s a constant reassessment. Even this trade wasn’t really a “point and shoot” until it got going. By that time you have lots of room for error. I’ll be helping you with this Nick, so not to worry mate. Cheers MG

  4. MG – You already know i am a big fan of yours but thought this very much warrants a comment. I like the way you are not afraid to quit a position and re-enter. This is something i have picked up from watching your YT vids. Other than telling people to go on your mentoring / educational programs i would very much advise anyone who is interested in trading to spend the time and go back and watch ALL of your YT vids as you can learn so much. Some of them I have watched 5/6 times and each time pick up on something different. Your no bullshit attitude to your videos is what i feel separates you from the rest. I have always been reluctant to spend money on training / ebooks /courses but from watching you work i have now been swayed as you certainly no your shit 🙂 TOP WORK!!!

    • Hi Adam, Firstly I’d like to thank you for your very kind words. I will be am selling “MG is my Hero” T shirts on eBay soon lol. When I show my wife the amazing comments I get she thinks you lot are talking about someone else 🙂 But like I say to her “Where do you think I get my money from? !!!!!!!” lol Hope to see you on the next phase of courses during June and July. thanks again MG

  5. Brilliant explanation as ususal. You held and held and held! I would have got in later and out earlier fearful of dramatic pullback feeling that I was joining the party a bit late. What is interesting for me about this race – as well as so many prices being at crossovers, is the tight ranges. As you mention this was probably due to a withdrawn horse. I wonder if this is a common pattern in reformed markets after a withdrawal. Horse withdrawn – market reforms – prices trade in a tight range before the pre race money arrives – then it kicks off!!! I haven’t looked into this enough to know if there is a pattern there but something to look out for ?

    The 6K backer was on his own, a freak gambler, he gets taken at 2mins 37secs at around 2.40. The price drifts from there. I like looking out for lone traders, I think of some rich Arab or footballer playing around with some pocket money unknowingly spoofing the market, once they are matched the market can quickly change direction. Thanks again!

    • Thanks Adrian, I am constantly reassessing my position. Making sure I know where every runner is and what’s putting my position in danger. The “managing the trade” phase is as important as entry and exit. But sometimes the hardest. Sometimes it’s a dream and you just ride the big green wave ( like that and may add it to my © list lol) Other times it’s a balls job where you just have to have the strength of conviction that you have it right. Of course this goes wrong and then it’s a case of taking some (controlled) pain. There was a withdrawn horse today. The whole market turned to dog shit. Going back to the multiple cross overs. OX’s are a great signal. They can be used as a positive or negative. Adding strength to your own position or giving a warning that you may need to bail out. Lots more about these in the program. Thanks for the comment- Cheers MG

  6. Hi Mugs,

    Another beauty got nice trade on this aswell, but not as nice as 6.05 at Southwell today Golan way. Im sure you made a nice few quid on that?? Anyway just wanted to say thanks once again for pointing out the importance of watching the live pictures.

    The horse had a bad fall in the national and you could see his reluctance to go down to the start and also to line up it was a no brainer lay at 1.30 I plannedto trade out after they jumped the first be he didnt get that far.

    Cheers Mugs,
    Mark

    • Hi Mark, I had the same idea lol. Mick Fitz’s wise words helped me there. I know not everyone has pictures (some just cannot get them). They are expensive, but I paid for my complete Sky subscription with all the channels and RUK for 12 months with this 1 opportunity. This is the sort of thing I have been trying to put across with my “At the start” videos. I had a visitor with me so wasn’t recording. Gutted Cheers MG

  7. Hi Steve

    Just wanted to know if you need a visitor popping round as I cannot wait for your mentorship program, waiting is killing me. LoL

    Wishing you, your family and all that visit your page a Happy Easter.

    Felix

    • Hey Felix, things are better when you wait for them……. Well that’s what my Mrs keeps telling me lol. Happy Easter to you and your family too. Cheers MG

  8. I never begrudge other traders making money. But my stomach turns when I see the words Golan Way. I had a healthy green just b4 the off . Then the wife comes in starts looking around the desk for her keys, I got distracted, forgot I had a back order in the market(!!) Market jumps b4 the off, order gets taken, horse plants itself I look up, see red, realise I cant get out. Red up over £200. Gutted. An amazing opportunity turned red. Double pain.

    • This is a huge problem. Luckily I am at the stage now where my room is a no go zone unless invited. The big turning point for me was when my wife reached over in front of me to get the telephone on my desk. The lead was stuck and she yanked it. It pulled out the internet connection and I lost £800. The next bit was like a scene from Oscar Pistorius’s trail while she locked herself in the bathroom while I tried to find a gun. Luckily I couldn’t find any bullets 🙂 We laugh about it now, but I didn’t let her have any new shoes for ages lol. What you find Adrian, is in the long term these things even themselves out. I’ll make sure I don’t mention it when we get together……. Don’t let this alter your focus. It happens. Put it away and carry on. Ultimately mate, they are only borrowing that money. it’s coming straight back! Cheers MG

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.