Sometimes when I watch back some of my videos and listen to all my waffle I cringe. I am always self critical of what I do. I can always do better. I think that’s how you improve over time. You will know that I do not go around making claims as to my incredible success. I am not the best trader out there, I do ok. I make a living. But I do share most of the little I do know. You’re not getting any hard sell. I am not emailing you (unless you asked me to, in which case I am happy to help you if I can). My old mailing list that I used to send out “The inside track” last year is in the trash bin. You will have never received anything from me other than what you asked for. You may know that I now run a mentoring program. This will be full pretty soon. I have 1 place in June and 7 in July. I have a Sept date pencilled in. That’s it. Wether I continue to take new people in after that is uncertain.
As you guys probably know, I put a huge amount of effort into my videos and blog. I try to make the videos relevant and what I write slightly interesting. Everything I do has my personality in it. From my waffle to my bad language and even some soundbites that I know some of you think about while you’re trading. I wear my heart on my sleeve and I say what I think usually. I like to have a laugh and I never mean to cause offence to anyone in what I say or write. But I am genuine and honest in what I say. If you ask me a question I will answer you as comprehensively and as quickly as I can. I know you appreciate that, because you tell me. Apart from a few posts on Twitter I don’t promote myself. I guess most of you find me by accident, but I do have a regular and very loyal following. I am extremley grateful for this.
So if you like my stuff, please spread the word. If you don’t thanks for reading and au revior 🙂
What I try to do when I am recording a video is firstly to make a few quid, obviously. Secondly I try to explain what I am looking at and what I am thinking. There is a good reason why there are not that many people putting up trading videos of any quantity or quality. I am not talking about amounts won. I think that is completely irrelevant. I am talking about interesting viewing content. Showing you a method you can maybe replicate, maybe something you can take from me and add to your own methods to improve them.
One of the things that I have taken from the group of guys who I am Mentoring is how diverse their methods are. Now I have shown them mine, do you think they should abandon all good things they were doing in their trading? Not a chance! Of course eliminating the errors and mistakes is where the greatest benefit lies. But ultimately they will take the good things I have hopefully shown them and add them to their Arsenal. Their own style will develop.
It is so important to when trading to realise that there is no “one size fits all” approach. You cannot go from race to race and apply the same method. It simply doesn’t work too well (in my experience anyway). You need to adapt and tweak existing methods that work and apply them with some diligence. A 4 runner race with a favourite at 1.45 and 3 rags will not trade the same as a 17 runner handicap where the fav is 8.6.
So enough waffle and Bull shit. let’s get on with it.
There are certain price points in markets that act as a natural “dam” if you like. I call them crossover points or XO’s for short. These are they places in the market where the tick size changes. The ones of note are 2,3,4,6 and 10. In this video i am using the XO at 4 on Crystal Lake. Why have I chosen this runner? There are 2 others at a similar price after all.
If we take an overview of the whole market we can see that Best Kept is stable at a similar price, you can see by the traded volumes highlighted in green and the blue candlesticks that the price is stable. The green bars pick out the larger amounts of traded volume – The Blue candlesticks show at what odds the runner was matched at recently. This gives you an accurate picture of what exactly is currently happening in the market.
The odds are 4 or 5 ticks above the XO at 4. The other alternative is Billingsgate. This is also at 4 at the XO. But is being backed and it is possible it may break though the XO. The beauty of trading a market after you know what has happened is it’s easy and in most cases very obvious. But in real time in real life it’s a little harder 🙂
There are a little over 3 minutes to the scheduled off time. I had attempted to take a position under the XO at 3.95. This is to try to take advantage of the enhanced tick size and reduced downside. This isn’t a “random” position. There are several reasons this is a sound place to scalp.
- It is generally weak
- There is opposition to it from multiple other runners – It’s harder for a horse to stream if there is credible opposition.
- It has broken through the top of it’s defined trading rangeTo go back under the XO is difficult once it has gone through – This is because of the reduced tick size going down.
- Backers are reluctant to take the risk it will bounce back up which means their exposure to downside is greater. – The exact opposite reason we want to LAY it here.
I call this a “simple scalp’ but to be honest I don’t like to pidgeon hole trades. What i want is the odds to fly off into the distance with a big chunk of my wedge on. But that just does not happen every race. Sometimes the smart trade is to just grind out a total with a little hybrid trading. Part swing and part scalp. I am not a natural scalper. This is one of the weaker areas of my trading and one I am keen to improve.
So I start the trade with my £200 matched at 3.95. I leave this as the backbone of my trade. I get the reduced downside and enhanced upside. It’s then a case of adding to my trade to try and take 1 or 2 ticks at a time. In effect build a position. Every time I get a successfully trade in, my scratch position gets lower and my safety further away from the action.
A minute into the trade sees the complexion of the race change. As Billingsgate who I thought would break the XO and steam as in fact drifted. It’s the other “player” Best Kept that has broken the xO. It doesn’t matter, it hasn’t effected what’s happening to Crystal Lake.
What my aim is now is to get as many trades matched as possible. I am using the position in the queue indicator (the far right column) to judge where my money is roughly . I usually do this in my head, but this works well enough. Over the douse of the trade the odds did not go more than 5 ticks either way. At no time did it breach the XO and endanger my position.
Could I have traded it differently and made more? Yes, of course. Should I have been more aggressive with my staking? Absolutely. Would others have traded it better? Yes of course they would. 🙂
Cheers Steve (MG)