I recorded this last week from Bangor. At first glance this looked tricky. With the first 3 all within half a point of each other. As you know I don’t do much “long term” analysis, as in thing to work out if I will be having a good day form 4 hours out. I trade the race as I find it, when I find it.If I can work it out I’ll have a crack, if not I may find another strategy to use. Make a book or maybe some cheeky scalps. Sometimes I just walk on by. There are plenty of races to trade. You simply do not have to do every single one. Watch the video and then read my analysis of what I did right, and more importantly, what I did wrong!
This is a 2m 4 f Novice chase at Bangor. The first 3 in the market were all trading between 3.1 and 3.6. The favourite Kings Grace is trained my Donald McCain. Bangor his his local track and is formidable there. Any weakness is significant. The 4th horse is Royal Macnab and is sitting onto of the crossover (XO) at 10.
My initial market assessment is swift and decisive. Sometimes you can just “see it”. Other times it’s almost impossible.
0:00 What I am hoping for here is a 2 v 1 situation. That is 2 are backed in and 1 drifts. In effect the 2 will come in because of the weakness of the other. looking at the market graphs it looks like The Bear Trap is strong and is breaking through the bottom of it’s defined range. There isn’t a massive amount of substance to this range, most the traded volumes are between 1 and 1.5k. The trend is positive. Swaledale Lad looks like it’s drifting. But the range is more defined. All that nonsense below 3.2 can be ignored. Kings Grace has a similar profile. But again the only traded amounts of any relevance are 3 to 3.2. It does have a negative trend though. The attractive thing for me was the XO at 3. You can see that there is 5.7k at 3, 4.4k at 3.05 and 4k at 3.. Like I always say, it’s harder to get through larger amounts of traded volume than it is small amounts. This means to me if I lay it and it’s going to come in, to cause me any real pain it has to go though the bigger amounts of traded volume ANF the XO at 3. This is a great point of safety. I may well get it wrong, but the cards are stacked a little more in my favour here.
2:00 The trade is developing nicely. Everything is positive except for Kings Grace. It’s broken through the top of the range. I should be piling in more money onto this now. But in the back of my mind I have the handbrake on. Donald McCain at Bangor. Sometimes too much knowledge is a bad thing.
3:20 The significant move here is Swaledale Lad who is braking through the XO at 3. He has WOM and momentum. This is going to have a negative impact on Kings Grace. it bounces for a short time, but quite often once a XO is breached it’s only a matter of time before they have another go at it as it’s easier to get through the 2nd time.
5:00 We now have “The Perfect Storm” Kings Grace at the XO at 4 and the other 3 either at or through the XO’s at 3. I missed this coming and should have been shovelling cash on to lay Kings Grace before it went though 4. Grrrrrrrr
6:00 We are entering the final phase of the trade now. In National Hunt races whatever has happened before now ceases to be important. it’s all about the start. I suspect Kings Grace will be a front runner, as many of Donald McCain’s runners are. The significance of this is diminished as there rate only 4 runners. But I am taking no chances. As usual I try and be greedy and manage to f*** up a couple of minor trades that cost me a few quid. I close with a£107.77 green book. This was a decent trade, but should have been so much better. As always trading with hindsight is so easy 🙂
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