Sorting Out a Complex Market

I recorded this last week from Bangor. At first glance this looked tricky.  With the first 3 all within half a point of each other. As you know I don’t do much “long term” analysis, as in thing to work out if I will be having a good day form 4 hours out. I trade the race as I find it, when I find it.If I can work it out I’ll have a crack, if not I may find another strategy to use. Make a book or maybe some cheeky scalps. Sometimes I just walk on by. There are plenty of races to trade. You simply do not have to do every single one. Watch the video and then read my analysis of what I did right, and more importantly, what I did wrong!

 

This is a 2m 4 f Novice chase at Bangor. The first 3 in the market were all trading between 3.1 and 3.6. The favourite Kings Grace is trained my Donald McCain. Bangor his his local track and is formidable there. Any weakness is significant. The 4th horse is Royal Macnab and is sitting onto of the crossover (XO) at 10.

My initial market assessment is swift and decisive. Sometimes you can just “see it”. Other times it’s almost impossible.

0:00 What I am hoping for here is a 2 v 1 situation. That is 2 are backed in and 1 drifts. In effect the 2 will come in because of the weakness of the other. looking at the market graphs it looks like The Bear Trap is strong and is breaking through the bottom of it’s defined range. There isn’t a massive amount of substance to this range, most the traded volumes are between 1 and 1.5k. The trend is positive. Swaledale Lad looks like it’s drifting. But the range is more defined. All that nonsense below 3.2 can be ignored. Kings Grace has a similar profile. But again the only traded amounts of any relevance are 3 to 3.2. It does have a negative trend though. The attractive thing for me was the XO at 3. You can see that there is 5.7k at 3, 4.4k at 3.05 and 4k at 3.. Like I always say, it’s harder to get through larger amounts of traded volume than it is small amounts. This means to me if I lay it and it’s going to come in, to cause me any real pain it has to go though the bigger amounts of traded volume ANF the XO at 3. This is a great point of safety. I may well get it wrong, but the cards are stacked a little more in my favour here.

2:00 The trade is developing nicely. Everything is positive except for Kings Grace. It’s broken through the top of the range. I should be piling in more money onto this now. But in the back of my mind I have the handbrake on. Donald McCain at Bangor. Sometimes too much knowledge is a bad thing.

3:20 The significant move here is Swaledale Lad who is braking through the XO at 3. He has WOM and momentum. This is going to have a negative impact on Kings Grace. it bounces for a short time, but quite often once a XO is breached it’s only a matter of time before they have another go at it as it’s easier to get through the 2nd time.

5:00 We now have “The Perfect Storm” Kings Grace at the XO at 4 and the other 3 either at or through the XO’s at 3. I missed this coming and should have been shovelling cash on to lay Kings Grace before it went though 4. Grrrrrrrr

6:00 We are entering the final phase of the trade now. In National Hunt races whatever has happened before now ceases to be important. it’s all about the start. I suspect Kings Grace will be a front runner, as many of Donald McCain’s runners are. The significance of this is diminished as there rate only 4 runners. But I am taking no chances. As usual I try and be greedy and manage to f*** up a couple of minor trades that cost me a few quid. I close with a£107.77 green book. This was a decent trade, but should have been so much better. As always trading with hindsight is so easy 🙂

As always I welcome your comments and questions. If you enjoyed this and want to know more about my Mentorship program – I am releasing 2 new dates over the weekend – email me at mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk if you want an invitation (no obligation) More details HERE

14 thoughts on “Sorting Out a Complex Market

  1. Hi,

    nice video plus explaination as always. Your last two videos show a massiv profit but whats more important, the way you spot it and how you managed it. Very informativ, always get a hugh information from those videos mate., the best stuff out there. Its like magic 😛

    Anyway happy eastern mate and keep doing that good stuff

    Greets

  2. Hi MG

    AMAZING !!!!

    Nice one once again, since I have come across your blog, there has not been a day that I have not watched your recordings.

    Just to add, your advice is fantastic and most of all you share it with us for no financial gain. Not many do what you are doing and I am sure many of us appreciate your hard work, I know I do.

    Once again thank you for sharing your info and humor which goes a long with your recordings.

    Felix

  3. I too was looking for the 2 v 1 scenario but traded it differently.

    The first thing I saw in this market was Kings Grace and Swaledale Lad at the top of their range. Ah ha!! The bear trap is coming in against the other 2. so I backed it. The price dropped but then Swaledale lad couldnt drift past 3.5 and started to come in. At some point (probably when SL broke out the bottom of its range at 3.25) I shoud have re assessed the situation. When SL broke through 3.25 at around 2mins .39 it joined TBT in a downtrend. Now it was KG on its own being the only drifter. That should have been my signal to lay KG. But I didnt, I was fixated on TBT willing it to go down. I made less than a tenner!!

    • The absolute key to this trade was the position of safety. In effect I took a punt which one would drift. But for me that extra money stacked at 3 and the fact it had to break through the XO with 2 horses closely breathing down it’s neck made the choice very clear to me. What I really like Adrian is how you have thought about this. I get the impression some traders pretty much guess what’s happening. But if you take a step back and use the proven techniques I am showing you, most times you can work it out. Listen, there is always going to be a fair amount of subjectivity. But you can “train” those out in the long term. And the process becomes more repetitive and you recognise situations and think “ah, been here before and this happened”, You become more consistent and more important, more confident. Go back to the start of your trade and think of it this way. For my trade to be successful 1 horse has to be backed – it’s the only way i will profit. But if I lay one I have more chances of something else putting pressure on it if one falls out of bed. Add that to the point of safety it makes a more convincing argument. Sometimes pinning it down to 1 horse doing what you want is too much to ask. Does that make any sense mate? Reassessment should be happening constantly. If you think it’s going wrong never be afraid to bail out. It’s a learning curve, you’re doing great Adrian. Cheers MG

  4. I made 11 ticks on this horse. I joined in early at 3.1 but traded out multiple times before finally laying at 3,45 for good and staying all the way to the top. Too bad I did not have any more money to lay. I was clicking LAY like crazy :D. I am glad I made same assuptions as MG although I was minute or 2 slower 🙂

    Its always great to see how MG trades compared to my trading on same markets. Its as close to a mentorship as one can get without actually seeing or talking to MG. You learn your lesson when you trade, then think about it and few days later you get most of the answer that were bugging you. 🙂

    • 11 ticks is great Yirkaa! profit IS profit. When you trade a race like this – then go back and see how you can improve. I do it everyday. Even as I was writing up the trade I was angry with myself over the mistakes I made. I am never satisfied with what I do. I can always improve. You have the heart and attitude to make a success. Good work – Cheers MG

  5. Hi Steve ,

    Once again, many thanks for another excellent video – they really are superb.

    Do you have a preference for back to lay trades or lay to back trades ? If you feel a trade is going wrong , do you ever close the trade down and trade in the opposite direction ?

    If a trade is going against you , do you ever add to it , hoping to ‘average the trade ‘ and get a better price ?

    I very much look forward to going on one of your trading days – since you will be covering so much ground , will there be any course notes with it , to help me remember the info ?

    Cheers,

    Nick.

    • Sorry Steve , I forgot to ask : do you ever close a winning trade in increments , rather than closing a trade in one go ? I also noticed that you have a live racing feed from Betdaq , pre race , do you have to have a trade placed with them to watch the feed ?

      Many thanks for your time Steve .Hopefully my questions may be of interest to other readers of your blog.

      Nick.

      • Hi again Nick 🙂
        Yes, I quite often close in increments. I call this “Progressive Staking © ” You will notice I trade mostly in increments of £200. I build my position by adding to the initial trade as my position (or confidence) improves. I do the same in reverse if I am unhappy with my position or feel I am in too deep.
        In regards to Betdaq – You just need a funded account. You don’t have to place a bet (atm)
        Cheers MG

    • Hi Nick – Thanks for your kind comment. In answer to your questions:
      I have no preference. I go where the trade is. Saying that I like to find a “safe place” where I can exit if things go against me. These seem to occur in LAY situations, but I’m happy either way.

      Do I ever add to a shit trade? All the time, but only if I think it’s coming back. I use the ebb & flow slack in the book technique to do this usually. Of course there are times when it goes wrong. But it’s usually under some sort of control 🙂 If I think it’s turning. yes, I’ll bail out and reverse the trade. This is in effect a completely different trade.I treat it as such. But I hope not to do this too often if I get my assessment right in the first place.

      In regard to course notes. No. The reason is I don’t want my work on eBay for £4.99. But to compensate for this is I have 3 (and growing) DVD’s with exclusive content and detailed explanations of the points I am making. These videos are not random trades. They all have something important to say. These are betting than “notes” in my opinion. On top of that is the support package. What I am effectively offing is “Mentorship” if you don’t understand of forget. Just ask. I’ll be happy to help you. Ideally I could write a brilliant manual. But I fear that there are too many unscrupulous bastards around that would take advantage of this. My course is a blueprint for “How to be a Pro trader”. The value of this in written form is immense I would guess. Saying that, the real value is in the mentoring.
      Hope this help Nick
      Cheers
      Steve (MG)

      • Steve ,

        I can not thank you enough for your time and answers.I am very much looking forward to going on your course.

        Many thanks ,

        Nick.

  6. Hi mugs you make it look so easy you always seem to have loads of time .I made a right tit of things today everything I did was wrong got in on wrong side half the time, when I had it right I changed my mind red figures everywhere my whole months profit p%%%ed away in one day but some hard lessons learned the hard way thanks again for your vids they great anyway just wanted to have a moan and get things off my chest am sick as a pig lol.

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