Using Ebb & Flow

If you can understand how slack in the book and ebb and flow relate to each other you can profit from them. This video gives a good example of this. The book is slack and nothing is putting any pressure on this horse.

Just to say before you watch the video. If you are interested in joining my Trading and Mentorship program, I am looking to add further dates in June and july. If you are interested drop me an email to mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk.

Watch the video and I’ll give a breakdown of the trade after.

00:00 My entry point was easy to spot. There was nothing to put any pressure on it and stop it drifting. I used my progressive staking and kept adding to the trade as my position improved.

00:39 You can see there is nothing at all with any downward pressure except the outsider at 22 – this isn’t too relevant. The favourite has some WOM and momentum behind it.

02:00 There is nothing apart from the fav moving in. There is enough of a gap between the back book % and lay book % for the price of the fav to move several ticks without it effecting the price of any other runner. I am not reacting to the short term trend of reversal. With a slack book like this I judge this to be ebb & flow of the market. I stick in another couple of trades to add to my position. You will see me constantly clicking on “TAKE SP”. I do not trust Betfair after last weeks fiasco where the site crashed again. By taking SP I may still lose if the site crashes, But with a substantial amount of money in the market I don’t want to risk it.

02:50 I close the trade, as it happen too soon, as my bets that I had in the market would have been matched. I do myself out of another £15-£20. Safety first and all that 🙂

When I talk about the book percentages. It’s important to get this into context. They are a minor piece in a big jigsaw. It’s just another tool I use.

16 thoughts on “Using Ebb & Flow

  1. Great video as usual. When you see that there is some slack in the book you add to your position.(backing). To be more specific are you seeing more “slack” on the back side of the book (the left hand % figure) giving you confidence to add to the position? I suppose what I am asking is can looking at the book % figures give you a clue as to the direction of movement on the fav (when there is some slack). Hope that makes sense!

    • Hi Adrian, This is a complex subject. It makes my head spin sometimes. I have been trying to put it in a more co-herent way for the Education Events. I want to make it simple 🙂 But it isn’t.
      The way the 2 sides of the book are linked mean that they for the most part work in tandem, Not always though. What i saw here was well over 2% gap between them. Because they market is never static that always changes. This basically means that the favourites price was able to change quite a few ticks without having to rely on other runners to accommodate it – or Ebb & Flow as I call it. Although the lay side was tighter, just a 1 tick move in any of the other runners would move the book nearly 0.5 %. As everything was still drifting this was always going to happen. A slack book means lots of ebb and flow. As there was no pressure on the fav’s price, the reversal and slack book meant I interpreted that as Ebb & Flow. If you traded this with a tight stop you would have lost a fortune.
      With respect to predicting movement. Sometimes I guess. But the problem is 1 second you have a 99.9% lay book and the next refresh it’s 99%. In a very slow market – possibly. This is another piece in this mad jigsaw. I am doing a series of videos mentioning this as I think it’s a good way to teach how a re market can behave. Hope all this makes sense to someone 🙂 Cheers MG

  2. I get it (I think)!!. If there is no pressure on the the favs price from other runners, but the price retraces a bit, look to see if there is slack in the book. If there is, it could just be a temporary retracement before the price continues to drop.

    In other words it gives you the balls to hold on when traders like me jump ship only to watch the market move back in my direction!

  3. The slack in the book is the difference between the back % say 101.9 and the lay % say 99 difference of 2.9% is this a slack book and if so what % difference is a tight one hope this makes sense and I not talking out my arse as usual 🙂

    • You have it correct. A tight book would be less than 1% – it’s not an exact science. Just a rough indication of how much movement in the odds you get. Cheers MG

      • Will the movement of a shorter priced horse effect the slack in the book quicker than a long shot this would mean when I am trying to trade I wouldn’t have to pay as much attention to the bigger priced horses thanks again for your time mg its much appreciated cheers pokerhead

        • Pay more attention to the smaller priced horses, although there isn’t a huge difference in % of book per tick. have a read of my reading the market article – it may help a little. Cheers MG

  4. Thanks again Mugs, since I have been watching your vids and reading your blog, things are clicking into place slowly but surely, obviously I have much to learn but my understanding of how the market works is light years in front from when I started. I am growing in confidence each week and I can’t thank you enough for your time. Not many people would do what you do. You’re a genuinely top bloke. Thanks again Mugs.

    • Stop it now – My head is big enough as it is 🙂 Appreciate your kind words, and am so please you can profit form my advice. Cheers MG

  5. Hi mugs how are you pal , the information you provide is outstanding compared to anything else on the net and in your videos the analysis and your ability to talk it through is perfect of the markets, I was just wondering how you understand so much of the mechanics of these markets do you have background in something similar ? Thanks pal .

    • Your comment is very kind Paul. My understanding of the markets pretty much comes from me sitting in a dark room in my underwear staring a a screen full of numbers that are constantly changing. There are around 10,0000 + racing markets a year. I have pretty much seen all of them for the last 8 years. It’s turned me into a social recluse and my wife reckons I’ve turned into Rain Man. My background is Car factories. I am terrible at over explaining. I do it all the time and it drives my family mad. But I expect that when I actually need to explain something I can (hopefully). I put a lot of thought into trying to make things as simple as possible to understand. I can’t wait to stand in front of my first Trading Education group and see if they understand just what the f*** I am talking about 🙂 Thanks again Paul, Cheers MG

  6. Lol sitting in a dark room in your underpants must have been essential to have made it were you are today lol, to be honest it’s better than hearing your a mathematical genius with a super human brain! Your enthusiasm towards your training course will guarantee it to be successfully for yourself and everyone taking part. Cheers pal for your reply .

  7. Great stuff MG.

    Its videos like this that make the difference. Such a nice change from looking at screen shots of someones huge P/L and reading blogs from them whilst on their 7th annual holiday.Your unassuming style is a pleasure to watch and read and I always check daily to see if youve posted new vids or posts.

    Many thanks and very best of luck with your seminars. I would love to go to one and may just do so as soon as this particularly hectic schedule of mine dies down. Please keep us informed of future events! And please please keep up the good work.
    Daz

    P.s I hope this doesnt further expand your cranium..hehe

  8. Only just realised that you are back in town. This is great stuff and those greened up book’s gives me heart and tells me that Peter Webb is not the only one having great green up’s. I’m still struggling, but improving. Your vids’s will help me now.
    Thank’s

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