I recorded this last Friday (Cheltenham Gold Cup day). My criteria for posting my videos has evolved over the months. Since I started reposting I am conscious that my videos have something in them that you can learn from. I see absolutely no point whatsoever sticking up an endless stream of videos of me sitting there all smug with hugh totals of profits. All that does is make me look like a cock and maybe intimidate some of you guys who are starting out.
Let me make it clear. I am not the worlds best trader. far from it. I have never claimed to be and never will. I do ok. Some months better than others. I have bad days. I sometimes have real shitters. Just like you guys do. I learn more everyday and I evolve what I do everyday.
The biggest danger for me is complacency. You sit there in your own little world. meetings like Cheltenham are big earners. You can shove through serious money and make serious money. But all the other meetings are not like this. On Saturday I was still in “I’m king of the world and invincible” mode. It all came crashing down on top. I deserved it. I was too cocky and the markets took down my pants and shoved it right up my arse – No lube. After 8 years you would think I would have learned 🙂
Anyway – none of that has much to do with this trade. I have been working very hard on the content for my upcoming training events. This has given me some new ideas about how I can improve what I do on the blog. I am not going to forget about my readers who can’t come along (or are to f****** tight) 🙂 So what I am going to try to do, is when I post up a video I’ll try to add some extra critique. Listen, we can all watch these videos and pull them to pieces after the event. There is hardly any video I have made where I didn’t watch it back cringing. Some of them I watch from behind the sofa with a cushion over my face, just like I did when I watched Dr Who when I was 7 or 8. But the point is, unless you are so arrogant that you think you know it all. You can always improve. Watching what you could have done better and repeating what you did well is a vital part of many things we do in life. many of them we do automatically. Like if you cut yourself because you left a sharp knife in the sink. next time you will make sure you don’t leave sharp knives in the sink. (I hope my wife reads this – my finger is still sore)
So onto the trade (if you are still with me) Watch the video first and then read what I have to say underneath it. I’ll put time stamps on my comments so you can relate exactly to what i am talking about.
00:00 Straight away you can see that there is a drift on the fav, it has broken through it’s upper resistance point (the end of where any significant money has been matched). The 2nd fav has also broken through the lower support. A quick assessment of the market clearly shows pretty much everything is reducing in odds – except the fav. All this has happened very recently. So far so good. One thing that is apparent is the WOM on the fav. It is heavily stacked on the back side. There is very little money available to LAY. In face at 00:08 there is only £1775 between 2.36 and 2.72. I don’t trust WOM. It can change very very quickly. But in this case there is real momentum behind it. This adds credibility to WOM. My first mistake was I was too cautious and dilly dallied around. This cost me 5 ticks with another 2 x £200.
01:15 There was no reason why I could not have increased my position at 2.44. The book was quite slack, meaning there was plenty of ebb and flow around. (prices were not entirely dependant on another price moving to allow a move either way on the fav). There was still downward pressure on every other runner except the fav. The fav was still drifting, but in a see saw motion due to the slack book. Moves are very rarely linear. This is why over reaction can be expensive.
01:28 13 seconds later I decide to try and get that 2.44. I was too late and took 2.5 – another 3 ticks wasted.
03:40 I decide to try and take out £200. Why? there was still downward pressure from the other runners and the book was very tight. The fav could only have moved in 2 ticks before the book went over broke and something else would have to drift. Thats assuming that all the other runners stayed static – Some were still moving in. But the biggest signal was the £1183 sitting on the LAY side. This didn’t fit in with the other money in the queue. It stood out. Above it was £124 at 2.56 and £80 and £68 above that at 2.58 & 2.60. It quickly disappeared.
(I have amended this after Danny correctly pointed out I had said Under Round. – I meant of course Over Broke. I will try to explain more of this subject moving forward)
05:20 The horses are going in the stalls and the most dangerous part of the trade is now. The 2nd fav is starting to turn and the pressure on the fav has now been released. The exit should have been now at 2.78 instead of the 2.66 I took.
I didn’t enter the trade with enough aggression.
I didn’t read the signs of the continuing drift.
I outstayed my welcome.
Result: I made less than half what I should have. Really easy trades like this may only happen once or twice a day. When they do you need to nail them. It is not beyond most traders to be able to make a reasonable living trading a race like this once a day.
I hope you enjoyed the assessment, and more importantly it made sense to you. As always, I am very happy to answer your questions. Just to say also that I am now collecting registrations for my future training and Mentorship programs I hope to put on in late June (ish). If you want to be alerted of the dates etc before I go public with it please drop me an email at email@example.com. (Please don’t register your interest in comments – thanks) You are obviously under no obligation whatsoever.