Very Easy Trade, Very Poor Execution

I recorded this last Friday (Cheltenham Gold Cup day). My criteria for posting my videos has evolved over the months. Since I started reposting I am conscious that my videos have something in them that you can learn from. I see absolutely no point whatsoever sticking up an endless stream of videos of me sitting there all smug with hugh totals of profits. All that does is make me look like a cock and maybe intimidate some of you guys who are starting out.

Let me make it clear. I am not the worlds best trader. far from it. I have never claimed to be and never will. I do ok. Some months better than others. I have bad days. I sometimes have real shitters. Just like you guys do. I learn more everyday and I evolve what I do everyday.

The biggest danger for me is complacency. You sit there in your own little world. meetings like Cheltenham are big earners. You can shove through serious money and make serious money. But all the other meetings are not like this. On Saturday I was still in “I’m king of the world and invincible” mode. It all came crashing down on top. I deserved it. I was too cocky and the markets took down my pants and shoved it right up my arse – No lube. After 8 years you would think I would have learned 🙂

Anyway – none of that has much to do with this trade. I have been working very hard on the content for my upcoming training events. This has given me some new ideas about how I can improve what I do on the blog. I am not going to forget about my readers who can’t come along (or are to f****** tight) 🙂 So what I am going to try to do, is when I post up a video I’ll try to add some extra critique. Listen, we can all watch these videos and pull them to pieces after the event. There is hardly any video I have made where I didn’t watch it back cringing. Some of them I watch from behind the sofa with a cushion over my face, just like I did when I watched Dr Who when I was 7 or 8. But the point is, unless you are so arrogant that you think you know it all. You can always improve. Watching what you could have done better and repeating what you did well is a vital part of many things we do in life. many of them we do automatically. Like if you cut yourself because you left a sharp knife in the sink. next time you will make sure you don’t leave sharp knives in the sink. (I hope my wife reads this – my finger is still sore)

So onto the trade (if you are still with me) Watch the video first and then read what I have to say underneath it. I’ll put time stamps on my comments so you can relate exactly to what i am talking about.

00:00 Straight away you can see that there is a drift on the fav, it has broken through it’s upper resistance point (the end of where any significant money has been matched). The 2nd fav has also broken through the lower support. A quick assessment of the market clearly shows pretty much everything is reducing in odds – except the fav. All this has happened very recently. So far so good. One thing that is apparent is the WOM on the fav. It is heavily stacked on the back side. There is very little money available to LAY. In face at 00:08 there is only £1775 between 2.36 and 2.72. I don’t trust WOM. It can change very very quickly. But in this case there is real momentum behind it. This adds credibility to WOM. My first mistake was I was too cautious and dilly dallied around. This cost me 5 ticks with another 2 x £200.

01:15 There was no reason why I could not have increased my position at 2.44. The book was quite slack, meaning there was plenty of ebb and flow around. (prices were not entirely dependant on another price moving to allow a move either way on the fav). There was still downward pressure on every other runner except the fav. The fav was still drifting, but in a see saw motion due to the slack book. Moves are very rarely linear. This is why over reaction can be expensive.

01:28 13 seconds later I decide to try and get that 2.44. I was too late and took 2.5 – another 3 ticks wasted.

03:40 I decide to try and take out £200. Why? there was still downward pressure from the other runners and the book was very tight. The fav could only have moved in 2 ticks before the book went over broke and something else would have to drift. Thats assuming that all the other runners stayed static – Some were still moving in. But the biggest signal was the £1183 sitting on the LAY side. This didn’t fit in with the other money in the queue. It stood out. Above it was £124 at 2.56 and £80 and £68 above that at 2.58 & 2.60. It quickly disappeared.

(I have amended this after Danny correctly pointed out I had said Under Round. – I meant of course Over Broke. I will try to explain more of this subject moving forward)

05:20 The horses are going in the stalls and the most dangerous part of the trade is now. The 2nd fav is starting to turn and the pressure on the fav has now been released. The exit should have been now at 2.78 instead of the 2.66 I took.

Summary:

I didn’t enter the trade with enough aggression.

I didn’t read the signs of the continuing drift.

I outstayed my welcome.

Result: I made less than half what I should have. Really easy trades like this may only happen once or twice a day. When they do you need to nail them. It is not beyond most traders to be able to make a reasonable living trading a race like this once a day.

I hope you enjoyed the assessment, and more importantly it made sense to you. As always, I am very happy to answer your questions. Just to say also that I am now collecting registrations for my future training and Mentorship programs I hope to put on in late June (ish). If you want to be alerted of the dates etc before I go public with it please drop me an email at mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk. (Please don’t register your interest in comments – thanks) You are obviously under no obligation whatsoever.

 

 

12 thoughts on “Very Easy Trade, Very Poor Execution

  1. Thanks a lot for the new way of explanation.
    It’s great way to learn us what to do and what to look in some situations.

  2. Thanks for the time and effort you put in making these vids mate. There’s not much out there for beginners and there’s better info here than the e-books I’ve wasted money on. Cheers.

  3. Interesting to watch. At my skill level I would have been out with a 5 tick profit (and thought that I had done well) but certainly something which I find difficult is to take your eye off the selection you are trading to see what is going on with the other horses. Thanks for the summing up though as it is very helpful.

    • Hi Nick. It is possible to trade just one horse without looking at anything else. But I think to understand how the whole market behaves gives more chances to enhance your profit (or more importantly reduce any loss). There is a danger to over think sometimes. Bare that in mind Nick. Cheers MG

  4. Hi mugs,

    Great video and also the comments after very helpful. I don’t know why but a lay trade is always my preferred trade. I just seem to see or trust them a lot more than a steamer. Maybe it’s because I feel that it just takes one steamer or a few strong runners to push a weak horse.

    Also thanks for the tips regarding watching what’s going on.

    First race yest the trainer of the 2nd fav was interviewed before the race and said he was concerned his horse wouldn’t settle. Inplay I try and avoid but couldn’t resist layed at 4.2 greened up at 5.8 before they jumped the first. pulled like a hooker

    • Thanks Mark – I seem to make more on lay trades for some reason. To be honest it’s just a case of what you can see. Some trades are very clear to me and others not so. We all see things slightly differently.
      You can’t always trust what trainers say. But a good way to nick a couple of ticks is by reacting to the over reaction to what they say while they are saying it. Watch carefully the price of a horse while the trainer is talking – The watch it when they have left. See if you can see what I mean. Cheers MG

      • Cheers Mugs,

        Thats probably why i like them more now that you mention it some drifters really go when the market conditions are right. Kemp 1st race yest fav was crazy 2.9 or so out to 5.1 crazy, as you have said before waiting for the right trade and making the most of it can make a days profits. Something i have been guilty of and most newish traders i suspect is we enter too many trades without clear signals. Sometimes less is more.

        Thanks mugs for the help and advice will watch carefully how the markets react to trainers comments and hopefully nip a few quid..

        Do you every bother researching races in the morning to see how they may pan out? something i have been doing the last few weeks with great results looking for a clear cut front running Fav. All prerace but if you can even get on before they line up on screen.The moves can be fascinating…

        Once again thanks for opening my eyes….

        Mark

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